UPDATE Unfortunately, Kendre Miller has been dealing with a hamstring injury since the beginning of training camp. So far, he has missed multiple weeks and even Week 1 of the pre-season. At this point, the chances of Miller seeing a breakout season, or maybe even making the team, seem slim. I would recommend skipping on Miller in your drafts for now, and maybe he will become an in-season waiver wire pickup.
Even after suffering a meniscus tear in the college football playoffs, the New Orleans Saints decided to use a third-round pick on Kendre Miller last season. He had to be eased into things; he didn't really get that big of a workload, and we didn't see that much of an impact from him until the final game of the season. But there were some glimpses, some things that we did see on a very limited number of touches that could lead to a bigger role in 2024.
In week 18 against Atlanta last season, the Saints decided to give Kendre Miller a larger workload, and he ran for 73 yards on 13 carries and scored a touchdown as well. But there were a couple of efficiency numbers that I did find interesting in the very few carries that he had last season. When you take a look at the running backs that had 40 or more carries, Kendre Miller ranked 14th in avoided tackles per attempt and he ranked 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. And then when you take a look at the running backs that had 10 or more targets last season, Kendre Miller ranks sixth in receiving yards after the catch. There are some things that he can do that are explosive after you get the ball in his hands.
But even though we have a small sample size from Kendre Miller last season, those numbers aren't what I'm interested in when it comes to him seeing an increase in his potential this year. It relies on the numbers from the other veteran running backs on the roster. Alvin Kamara is going to be 29 this season, and his production has been slowly declining on an efficiency basis the last several years. Jamal Williams was absolutely awful last season. The guy that they signed, who dominated the red zone in Detroit, is not the same guy that they have now.
I'm going to read a few numbers to you, and it's a lot of numbers, so I'm going to look off-camera while I do that, so I apologize. But when you take a look from 2019 to 2023, Alvin Kamara's stats have slowly been declining when you take a look at them on an efficiency basis. For instance, yards after contact per attempt back in 2019, he was averaging 3.18 yards after contact per attempt. It has slowly dropped every season since then, going to 2.97, 2.80, 2.72, and then 2.51 this past year in 2023. The same thing can be said for avoided tackles per attempt. Back in 2019, he averaged 0.25 avoided tackles per attempt. Since then, it has dropped to 0.21, 0.19, 0.15, and all the way down to 0.12 this past season in 2023.
His explosiveness has also been on the decline. When you take a look at the amount of yards that came on runs of 15 or more yards, that percentage has slowly gone down. Back in 2019, 28.5% of his total rushing yards came on runs that were 15 or more yards. Now, in 2020, it actually did go up a little bit; it jumped up to 32.4. It has plummeted since then, down to 14.5, down to 13.4, and then a little bit of an improvement up to 13.7 in 2023.
Alvin Kamara is not getting younger, and he clearly is losing a step in his game as well, which is to be expected. He has had a lot of touches since he's entered the league; he's been very, very good, but it may be time to limit his touches moving forward and find a guy that can complement him very well on the ground, and that would be Kendre Miller. If we can get Kendre Miller a few more touches this season and get him into that supplementary role where we see 200 carries, we could be looking at a guy that becomes a weekly flex option in this offense.
I definitely would not stop paying attention to Kendre Miller. Keep him on your radar, and especially if anything were to happen to Alvin Kamara where he potentially misses time, Kendre Miller could find himself in a spot where he's giving you even a little bit more than flex upside.
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