Tua Tagovailoa's concussions last season really opened up a long and complicated discussion on the concussion protocol as well as concussion monitoring in the NFL as a whole. They also opened up a variety of discussions on how to handle Tua from a fantasy perspective going forward.
Because statistically, Tua was really, really good last year. He led all of the quarterbacks in passer rating, yards per attempt, and touchdown percentage. Last season, in four of the 13 games that he played in, he finished as a top-four quarterback. And he was inside the top 18 in all but three games that he played in.
However, the injuries that he had dating back to his time at Alabama have continued to follow him in the NFL. He's never played more than 13 regular season games since he entered the league. He's undersized as a quarterback, which leads to him taking a ton of violent hits. When guys get him in the backfield, they are just ragdolling this man around.
Having three concussions, and knowing that each subsequent concussion can lead to longer symptoms, it is very concerning that any concussion that Tua gets going forward could lead to a long, prolonged recovery for him. And it doesn't matter if it's week one or week six, we know that he's under a microscope now. Anytime he gets a concussion, everybody's going to be paying attention to it.
It took him over a month to recover from his last concussion and to actually clear concussion protocol to take contact again. Who's to say that every concussion going forward doesn't lead to an entire month off? And I'm not surprised, given what we know about the cumulative effect of concussions and how it affects the brain and life moving forward, that Tua really was open and honest that he considered retirement this offseason due to the concussions that he had.
Now, I understand how hard it is from a fantasy perspective to not see that upside and not want to capitalize on it. And I do think that if he stays healthy, Tua could be a QB1 this year. But you better be confident in the backup that you have for him because he is one hit away from potentially missing an entire month of the season from a concussion.
As for me, his current price tag as a back-end QB1, early QB2, isn't taking into account the risk that he brings to your fantasy team every time he takes a big hit. And so because of that, he's on my do not draft list as long as he's being taken inside those top 14 quarterbacks.
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