Now obviously Garrett Wilson didn't have the opportunity to benefit from the quarterback play of Aaron Rodgers last year, and that hurt his production. But the extreme breakout could be coming this season. Now, over the two-year career of Garrett Wilson, he's had the likes of Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle as his quarterbacks. However, he still has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to start his career.
Then listen to this: here is a list of wide receivers who've seen over 300 targets in the first two years of their career. First, it's Garrett Wilson with 315. Second, there is no second. He is the only wide receiver in history to achieve that. They want to get this guy the ball a lot. But sure, it's not going to be just the Garrett Wilson show each and every week for the Jets. They brought in Mike Williams, they drafted Malachi Corley, they still have Breece Hall in the backfield, and they're going to have one of the better defenses here entering the season.
There's a lot going right right now for the Jets, but Rodgers has always had a guy in his offense to really lean on, whether it was Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, or Davante Adams. And we already know that Aaron Rodgers loves himself some Garrett Wilson. There's been no secret to that. But it's not like Garrett Wilson's going to go out there and get some huge increase in volume to really push him over the top. If we're going to go out there and expect more than 150 targets, that is absolutely stupid. But what we can expect is an increase in catchable targets.
Last year, Garrett Wilson saw 168 targets. Do you know how many of them were catchable? Only 114 of them. That is 67.9% and ranked 65th among all NFL wide receivers. Was it a fluke? No. In 2022, he had 147 targets, and only 94 of those were deemed catchable. The bad quarterback play the last couple of years has really limited Garrett Wilson.
So what can we expect from Aaron Rodgers? Well, in the past, when he had guys like Davante Adams, they would routinely see a catchable target rate right around 80%. Can you imagine if 80% of the targets that go the way of Garrett Wilson were seen as catchable targets? At 150 targets on the season, that would put him right around 120 receptions. The guy has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons but doesn't even have a 100-catch season yet. If the receptions go up, the yardage goes up; we already know that.
But there is one other thing that no one else is mentioning, and that is touchdown opportunities. Aaron Rodgers' touchdown percentage for his career is three times that of Zach Wilson. Garrett Wilson only needs 212 fantasy points to return top 10 value at the position. That right there equates to 95 catches for 1,200 yards and eight touchdowns. That's the exact same amount of catches he had last year and only an increase of 158 yards receiving and five touchdowns. With the increase in catchable targets and the upgraded touchdown opportunity, those numbers could be conservative, especially if Mike Williams misses time again.
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